So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

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So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

Postby ArbitrageFtw » Mon Mar 30, 2015 1:22 pm

So I got into a bit of a discussion/argument with a friend about how powerful arbiter of the precipice actually is in a simple two player game of CotG and RotF. Assuming two good players, and assuming the player A always goes first and is presented with an arbiter in the center row that he can (and does) purchase, and no other arbiter pops up until at least turn three (or maybe never, but player B is assumed not to get one in the first two turns before shuffling).

What percentage of games would you expect player A to win in this situation (assuming the players would be 50/50 normally with a normal/random setup).

My friend thinks the arbiter would only benefit player a in a couple extra games out of ten, or push him to 70% win vs 30% lose.

I think arbiter is much stronger than this, and think player A would win at least 80%, and probably closer to 90% of the games played due to the power of this single card right from the start.

Now, is arbiter the absolute best thing you could pick up in the first turn? I'd imagine that double omen raven would be better, but that's also unlikely to be in the first six (or seven) cards to pop up other than te given arbiter.

Also, my general strategy when my opponent gets an early powerful banisher like arbiter is to race the honor pool in order to minimize the benefit of banishing cards by reducing the gsme's length. But RotF punishes overly aggressive decks due to the asps that steal honor, so I think this strategy is a bit weaker than normal.

What do you think?
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Re: So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

Postby Lancelot » Mon Mar 30, 2015 3:41 pm

The Arbiter is a must-pick up for me every single time and I'm always cycling through my deck easily with by at least adding a Temple Librarian/Seer of the Forked Path...and it's indeed a hard combination to beat since you're mainly drawing the cards you want to draw, instead of the dead weight.
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Re: So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

Postby Huuuze » Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:53 pm

ArbitrageFtw wrote:What percentage of games would you expect player A to win in this situation (assuming the players would be 50/50 normally with a normal/random setup).

One card doesn't seal the victory. Is this card strong? Yes. Does it assure victory at a rate higher than other cards? I doubt it.

I'll see if Playdek has the ability to query which card appears most in a winning deck. It'd be interesting to know.
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Re: So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

Postby ArbitrageFtw » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:14 pm

I generally tend to agree that it takes more than a single card being in your deck to win, and there are chances for better play to edge out a victory, I'm talking about a pretty specific case here. T1 or t2 arbiter is substantially better than a t3/4 arbiter which is stronger than a t5/6/7 arbiter... Etc. the power it lends by both banishing a card per shuffle as well as digging you two deeper through your deck each time you play it is immense. Assuming each player picks up one card on each of turns 1 & 2, by making arbiter one of yours you've effectively maintained a deck count of 10 83% (5/6ths) of the time, and then also get to banish to improve your deck going forward. And based on the setup, both players are of equal skill, so outplaying isn't really a factor here because both players are assumed to play on par with each other. I have no doubt a stronger player could overcome the deficit of such a strong first turn against a weaker player, but that isn't my question here.

And that would be a cool query to see, although, as I mentioned before, a turn 1/2 arbiter is far stronger than a turn 7 one, and I've even see people pick them up on the final turn as a strictly worse play than grabbing 2 heavies...
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Re: So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

Postby Aasac » Wed Apr 01, 2015 1:28 am

Arbiter is really ckfuing good.

From all the years of experience from the real card and iso of this game, whoever gets it within the first 4 turns *first 2 shuffle* will win about 90% of the time.

The combination of thin and drawing(s) is a dangerous one. Thinning without losing a card count, plus filtering bad hand, plus drawing into 2 so you can faster re-use of arbiter/or any other useful heros... insane.

The opposing player is so behind that it will quickly snowball, because arbiter allow better and higher costed buy, than using said buy quicker by shuffling into it sooner.

Honorable mention: Shadowcaster.
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Re: So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

Postby MysticNutGo » Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:48 am

It's as powerful as you think it is and more so, but I'm not going to lose hope if my opponent gets one. Drawing is good, banishing is good, drawbanish is best.
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Re: So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

Postby ArbitrageFtw » Wed Apr 01, 2015 5:57 pm

Appreciate tournopinilms on the matter, good to know I'm not alone in my judgment of its power level. That being said, I've been playing a bunch of CotG and RotF I think there may be a couple better plays. In particular, double raven is really strong for obvious reasons, but so is a turn 1 black hole, which for some reason I had thought was in SoS... Silly me. And I think in general BH is better than arbiter, as you can use it each turn and as a construct you only have to draw it once and it won't clog your deck after that, but it's downside is you have to decide a lot on whether you want the extra rune or the banish which can be a challenging decision at times.

Still though, there's only one copy of BH in the set and it'll only make an appearance in the first couple turns a small fraction of the games, and then only 4 out of 9 of those will the opponent be able to buy it from a 3/5 split in turns 1 or 2.
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Re: So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

Postby Unikornus » Fri Apr 03, 2015 5:06 am

Huuuze wrote:
ArbitrageFtw wrote:What percentage of games would you expect player A to win in this situation (assuming the players would be 50/50 normally with a normal/random setup).

One card doesn't seal the victory. Is this card strong? Yes. Does it assure victory at a rate higher than other cards? I doubt it.

I'll see if Playdek has the ability to query which card appears most in a winning deck. It'd be interesting to know.


That would be awesome!
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Re: So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

Postby Radicalman33 » Fri May 22, 2015 9:46 pm

I do not think you can put a % of victory based on one card. However, having the Arbiter first turn will certainly help you win. In my experience the Arbiter is only good if you get it within the fist 4 turns or so. After that you are taking a gamble with what will have to be banished. This goes for any set you use the card in. CotG and RotF are heavy in "draw a card" heroes, if you use the Arbiter in later sets it seems even stronger.
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Re: So, just how good is arbiter anyways?

Postby ackmondual » Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:00 am

I remember a 4p game with just CotG. One player managed to get TWO Arbiter of the Precipices, and managed to win. A largish margin, but not an absolute crushing victory. If you're just going up against one of them, it shouldn't be THAT bad to workaround.

I had a game vs. AI where I banished around 7 cards. Then, Ender Of Days (10/10, monster, promo, remove all honor from the pool) appears, and one comp player who loaded up on HI and power in general killed it! He got 33pts, I ended the game with only 18! Only 7 rounds we had!
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